First, here's my smoothed graph using the last couple weeks' data:
Why? Because IHME and Google are not giving us a clear view of the data yet, today.
IHME hasn't updated their data since Dec. 23. They are only showing what they thought the data will be at this time.
And Google's data is too jagged to make sense of:
So I have smoothed the data from the last 2 weeks or so to give an idea of where we are at this time in the pandemic.
It averages the last 7 days including today, to give us a view of how Covid is affecting people in California.
As you can see, it's trending up, with the latest value estimating on average about 517 deaths per day on January 12, 2021 in California.
I used "Moving Averages" for this project because I theorized that even if the reporting is actually on time each day, and if people really do tend to die in large numbers on certain days (as opposed to some numbers coming in for Monday that should have been assigned to Sunday)--even in either scenario--taking the local average (of the last 7 days of data) gives us insight into if the death toll is going up, and by about how much on average. How quickly is this disease rampaging?
As it stands, the averaged numbers of deaths are going up at this moment, and are over 4 times California's previous highest days in August.
Update on 1/18:
On reflection, taking a week by week average (one data point for each week) is going to be a better indication of where we are, as there are always strong outlier days. The weekly average for 1/10 to 1/16 (7 days) is 527.
Update on 1/23:
Google has updated their graphs to the same 7-day moving average as my graph above. An example:
Covid-19 Data sourced from Google: